What’s the secret of a winning horse laying system for Betfair? There are hundreds of products for sale and so called Betfair gurus to tell you how to make money on Betfair but the basis of a winning system can actually be quite simple. Here I will describe the foundations of a winning horse laying system which you can adapt and experiment with.
The first thing we must look for when laying horses is that we have a maximum lay odds in mind to protect our betting bank. If we choose to lay horses simply on the basis that they are outsiders with little chance of winning on the day one does make it home first we will suffer! Imagine a laying strategy where we lay a 50 to 1 outsider every day. Inevitably one will win and we’ll pay the price for an over-simplistic approach!
Statistics tell us that around a third of favourites win their races. That means of course that two thirds of favourites lose their races! For me this makes the basis for a winning horse laying system. Favourites will of course generally have quite low odds and our betting bank won’t suffer too much when one does win.
There are many different types of horse races and by being selective about ones we bet on we can further improve our horse laying strike rate. Personally I avoid handicap races since in theory, if the handicapper has it right, all the horses are evenly matched. I also avoid races with only a small number of horses running – upwards of 8 is a good starting point.
There are many factors which determine which horse will be the favourite in a race. These include in form stables, trainers and jockeys and of course the horse’s recent race results. Here we have another strong indicator for a solid horse laying system – If the horse was second or third in its last race many punters will back it assuming it was just beaten and may win the next race. Often the race is a completely different affair – a different distance or class, more runners, better quality horses etc.
So to sum up my basis for a winning horse laying system for Betfair –
1) Don’t be afraid to lay favourites in the right circumstances
2) Avoid handicap races and big race meetings
3) Look for indicators there may be a false favourite – for example, was the favourite just beaten last time out but conditions today are entirely different
In spite of all the hype out there and talk of Betfair loopholes and secrets it is possible to make money on Betfair with a sensible horse laying system.