What If the betting line or spread was established by four sports advisory companies without collusion or previous knowledge of each others numbers!
Lets face some facts about this number or point spread that usually comes from one Sports Advisory Group. This number is sold or distributed to the sports betting outlets online and the legal Sports Books in Nevada. These outlets put their little tweak on the line by 1/2 point or 1 point or an extra $5 on the money odds. However, everybody will post their number which is the same or within a point of each other. This is the equivalent of price fixing and collusion in any other industry.
How come the Sports Betting Industry has the same price or spread on their betting board? WHY – because nobody wants to rock the boat!
What if this process of establishing a betting line was not a monopoly but was provided by at least four sports consulting groups that were independent of each other. Each group would then post their calculated number for the worldwide sports betting outlets to buy and use for their operation.
This new mode of operation would unlock the monopoly that exists when the line is established. Now what happens? Would some books dare to post numbers that are different from others by 4 or 5 points either way. I doubt it since nobody wants to rock that boat. Is this collusion by the sports books so they can keep their share of the market and not create a price or point spread war.
The process of constructing the point spread number is probably done through a software program with all the statistics and other information to get a base number. Then the actual number is refined to include public perception as to where the public will place their money. It is no secret that Sports Books speculate or predict at what number the public will be evenly divided.
There are a number of times when the line is not even close to the final score. They do come close about 65% of the time. However, when the spread is minus 7 and the favorite wins by 21 points or the underdog wins outright, their number is way off.
If that minus 7 point favorite is listed at minus 11 points at another outlet would there be a Revolution among Sports Book operators. Would this difference of opinion cause a lot of anxiety with casino management. I am sure they would question each others actions after doing the same thing together all these years.
For a true and balanced market to emerge in any industry, there should be some options and competition among the players involved. A Betting Exchange is very close to a more balanced betting market since the competition is against other bettors. The spread is the same but the money odds are much better with more options.
If the Sports Books in Nevada and online books decide to re-arrange their Sports Book operations to include some alternatives to the spread, they will increase their handle and be more competitive. I would install some form of Spread Betting that is big in Europe. Allow more options with alternative lines and charge a little more vigorish. Some online books have alternative run lines on baseball. They post the run line at minus 1.5 runs on the favorite and underdog in the same game.
The Sports Betting outlets need to become more innovative to maintain a market share. We know they probably will not “rock that boat” unless one or more sports betting venues develops a rogue or maverick mentality. This would be a big gamble that could payoff and increase market share. However, it is ironical that sports books do not want to be in the gambling business. They just want to collect their commission and avoid too much risk. They are more concerned about the heavy hitters than the small average recreational bettors who lose more often.
Promoting or seeing changes in any financial markets is similar to getting people to stop smoking or obese people to lose weight. Change is difficult for a lot of people and businesses. As they say “talk is cheap”. However, I feel technology is becoming more prevalent in Sport Betting industry. Hopefully, it will create a more vibrant market with better options and more competition within the sports betting community.