Soccer Betting – Maintaining System Discipline

Investing behavior is a popular topic among financial experts and economists trying to learn how and why investors and markets behave the way they do. Many of their discoveries and conclusions are just as applicable to punters wagering on betting exchanges as they are to brokers and traders dealing on the financial markets. The difference is that many brokers and traders are working with other people’s money, meaning that they have to exercise strict discipline as they are liable to their clients. Conversely, the independent punter is usually only using his own money and has few restrictions on what he can do with it.

System discipline refers to fighting the temptation chase every seemingly good bet in favor of sticking to a system that has been tested and shown to be successful. Most successful systems advise the bettor to have a fixed amount of cash with which to bet (commonly known as a “betting bank”); require that some manner of analysis or review accompany each bet; and dictate specific amounts, percentages, or odds. Most of these systems only work if the punter follows them perfectly, as adding variation changes the equations upon which the system is based. Nevertheless, since most effective systems only provide small but steady profits, many punters become overconfident, impatient, or greedy and begin discarding elements of their system. The result tends to be betting without a proven system and usually means the same hit and miss ratio as any random gambler.

The entire concept of system discipline is fundamentally counter intuitive to the average punter. After all, he wagering on the outcome of an event that has not been determined yet. Nevertheless, sport betting is not like casino gambling where the outcome is totally random; instead, research and experimentation can – and does – result in the development of systems that can radically improve the chance of winning. That being said, these systems are only as good as the punter is at employing them. Failing to be consistent, chasing after non-system bets that seem reasonable, and betting beyond one’s means all result in removing any advantage that a well thought out system may offer.

Once a betting system has been developed and proven, maintaining system discipline is the primary factor required to maintain steady winnings. Any and all variation from that system changes the total amount of money won or lost, rendering the results derived exclusively from the system moot. Random betting on sports is a fool’s game because with a little time and effort the punter can do much better. 

The professional punter knows and understands that system discipline is the key to success. Using his system consistently, patiently analyzing each bet before making, refusing to get too greedy and accepting many small payouts over a few large ones are all signs of a serious bettor that intends to make money. While anyone can get caught up in the excitement of wagering and clever bookmakers constantly make offers that seem very good, the professional with a proven system knows better.

How to Quit Your Job With Sports Betting – 2 Tips

Do you want to quit your job and discover a better life? Sports betting could very well be the answer. Many people have used it to do just that. In fact, there have been many people who have not only quit their jobs, but also become quite wealthy through sports gambling.

If you want to make the big money in sports betting, you cannot go rushing in blindly. You have to first know what your strategy is going to be. I am the type of person who does not like to waste my time. I like to study the best in the world and short cut my success. In order to make money right away and quit your day job quickly you too will have to learn the secret sports betting strategies.

You have to learn these two critical things:

1. How to pick the winners.

2. And which games to bet on.

Once you know these two things, the sky is the limit. And it really is not as hard as you may think. The reason that most sports bettors fail is because they do not understand these two things. They bet every game under the sun and fail miserably.

They bet a lot of the games where they have very little advantage. And even if they do pick one of the right games, they have no idea how to pick the winners in those games. These are the people that lose their seed money and have very short and unprofitable gambling careers.

5 Steps to Be More Successful With Sports Betting

Sports betting shouldn’t be seen as a get-rich-quick scheme. However, with the right strategies and patience, there is the chance to make a decent return on the initial investment. Here are five steps that can help to be more successful with sports betting:

Find value

The ability to be successful with sports betting involves several factors. A major component is the ability to find value in a potential bet. This means searching for the bets with odds that seem too high and capitalizing on those opportunities. Check the bets on every match day and look out for the undervalued teams.

Money management

The ability to manage the bankroll is a major issue for anyone looking to achieve long-term success in this area. A simple strategy to avoid going bankrupt is to limit the maximum stake per bet to 1-2% of the total bankroll. By using this limited stake plan and betting on the value bets, there is the possibility of growing the income for the future.

Have patience

Betting should be seen as another form of investment that is successful over the long-term, and not the short. While the bankroll may seem to be growing slowly initially, this will gradually change when able to comfortably increase the stake for each bet. Betting involves a lot of winning streaks, losing streaks and other swings, so it is important to be consistent with the betting approach and avoid the temptation to stake a large percentage of the bankroll on a single bet in the hope of making it big in a much shorter time-frame.

Use the right sportsbook

Signing up to the best sportsbooks is certain to help become successful. Not all sportsbooks are very accommodating to the more successful players, so it is important to find one that won’t limit or even close the account after a few winning runs. However, there are plenty of good sportsbooks to use and it is simply a case of researching the available options and using those with a solid reputation and offers the type of bets that interest you.

Follow the experts

Many people find it difficult to identify the best or most valuable bets by themselves, and will simply prefer to use the services of one of the many successful tipster services. They can be very useful to compliment the betting action. There are plenty of tipsters offering a wide range of services. It is practical to trial the services for a short period with low stakes to understand the success rate before investing any real money on the tips offered.

Betting on Steamers and Drifters on Betfair Has Nothing to Do With Irons Or Driftwood

Or is it a question of where. This method of betting on horses works by being able to back and lay the same horse. A betting exchange like Betfair is an ideal place to do this. For a horse who’s odds are shortening (steaming) the idea is to back when the odds are wider and lay the odds when they are shorter. The rule of thumb to make money by movement in the odds is to lay short odds and back longer odds. So, if the horse is drifting you lay when the odds are short and back after they lengthen. This is a type of betting arbitrage and locks in a small profit whatever the outcome. The profit is determined by the difference between the odds (back and lay) and the size of the stake.

I know, I know, this all sounds very easy when we are sitting in ivory towers, but what about the real world. There is skill to betting on steamers and drifters, which involves selecting in advance which horses will show these profitable characteristics.

If you are unfamiliar with Betfair it is worth taking sometime to get to know the website.

Here are 3 ways to find steamers and drifters. But first, a tip to aid you in the quest for spotting steamers or drifters. Get comfortable with Betfair and how the odds change before a race starts. Notice which horses have an imbalance of money backing or laying. Significantly more money backing a horse can be an indication that something has happened to improve the horse’s chances. Consequently other Betfair members may offer shorter odds, which can turn the horse into a steamer. The opposite is true for a horse who’s likelihood of winning reduces for some reason.

Ok, now for three tips for finding steamers or drifters.

The weather. If the whether changes un-expectantly or by more than what has been predicted the chance of certain horses performing well or badly can change dramatically. Let’s expand on this. The weather affects the state of the race track, known as ‘the going’. The condition of the track is tested by an official at the race track. They push a stick into the track to see the state of the earth. There are a range of classifications that are used; hard, firm, good to firm, good, good to soft, soft, and heavy. Some horses perform much better on certain surfaces than others. For example, if ‘the going’ is good it suits a horse that has speed. If the ground is less than good (good to soft, soft and heavy) then a horse with stamina will perform better.

If the weather forecast foretells that the going will be good the favourite will be a horse with speed. If you have a more reliable weather forecast or you have information about a change of conditions as they happen you can back or lay the horse before its odds change.

Imagine there is unexpected rain or more than expected. If a horse is favourite because it has speed it’s odds will lengthen significantly (drift), and a horse’s odds who has stamina will shorten (steam). In this example you would lay the favourite to lose at short odds. Then back the horse to when after the odds have drifted. The same works in reverse for the horse with stamina who’s odds will steam. This is just one example of how a change in weather can produce steamer and drifters.

The rider. A change of Jockey can produce a steamer or drifter. If a jockey is injured, then the horse is allocated another jockey. As you might expect an experienced jockey will perform better than a jockey who hasn’t had as many races or good performances. The odds will drift (lengthen) if a jockey is replaced by one with less experience. The odds will steam (shorten) if a less experienced jockey is replaced by one who has had better performances.

The third and final method of finding drifters or steamers is to watch the horse closely before the race. During this time the horse will be warmed up by the trainer. It is possible for the horse to use up too much energy during the warm up. Tell tail signs of a horse that is expending too much energy before ‘the off’ are lots of sweat (actually loads of sweat caused by anxiety), rearing, and kicking the hind legs. You can not use this technique in isolation. A good knowledge of the horse and trainer is important. This makes it easier to spot abnormal behavior shown by the horse before the start.